All’s Unquiet on the Eastern Front

Though their manager is a Valentine, things certainly haven’t been all roses and chocolates for the Boston Red Sox this season.

Sitting at 62-74 with less than a month to play, Boston is having its worst season in recent memory.

Granted, they have won two World Series titles in the last ten years, but with a team that spends as big as the Red Sox do (and when curses no longer are excuses), victories are expected.  In fact, this entire season has given us a sense of what the bizarro-AL East is like—or is that just the AL East of the future?

Roughly 27 games are yet to be played this season and a new Wild Card format has all but guaranteed a dogfight to the finish in which every last game is going to count.

According to ESPN.com, there are three teams in the AL East with more than a 50% chance of making the playoffs, though Oakland is right in the mix and the Angels and Tigers are both a miraculous September away from sneaking in.

Baseball in September has a little bit to do with payroll and talent and a lot to do with heart.  With my own beating at 150 bpm, here are my predictions for the AL East’s standings on October 1^st:

At 17-5 with a 2.54 ERA, Price is a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young.

1. Tampa Bay Rays-Currently 1.5 games back of both the Yankees and the Orioles for the Division lead, the Rays have consistently been the most clutch team in the MLB.  They have the starting rotation to take them the distance, too.  At a combined 30-13 record, David Price and James Shields have made for a very strong one-two punch, but the dangerous thing about them is that Alex Cobb has the worst starting ERA at 4.28.  Fernando Rodney being an absolute rock in the ninth (42 saves) hasn’t hurt either.  Still, as Evan Longoria goes, so do the Rays.  His hamstring will need to stay healthy if the Rays are to finish with the division title.

T2. New York Yankees- Like Derek Jeter said, “I don’t panic.”  That being said, the Yankees seriously need to kick things into gear if they want to remain in the AL East division title conversation.  A 5-2 loss at the hands of the Rays Tuesday night brings them to a tie with Baltimore for the division lead and they have not fared well of late, losing seven of their last ten.  What sets the Yankees apart is an unrivaled amount of veteran leadership—now those vets, namely Curtis Granderson, Ichiro Suzuki and Mark Teixeira—need to find a way to get on base more and provide a spark for a team that is in serious need of one.  Sabathia and Jeter surely can’t hold the weight of the Bronx on their shoulders without support.

T2. Baltimore Orioles- At 8-2 in their last 10 games, the “Fighting Showalters” have a serious chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 1997, or what many consider a generation.  Those were the days of Mike Mussina, the days of Yankee dynasty.  Now, a young cast led by rookie phenom third baseman Manny Machado and catcher Matt Wieters, who has 18 homers and 67 RBI on the season, has a chance to turn things around in a city with a great love of baseball but a not-so-great result in recent memory.  Their primary concern down the stretch should be starting pitching—only ace Wei-Yin Chen, at 12-8, has more than 10 wins on the season.  Just getting to the seventh inning will likely put them in the clear, though—the Orioles’ 3.00 bullpen ERA is good for 4^th best in the MLB.

4. Boston Red Sox-Now that the Angels are starting to make a surge, the Red Sox are unrivaled as the most disappointing team in the league this year.  Manager Bobby Valentine is seemingly days away from being ousted and suddenly the decision to fire Terry Francona at the end of last season’s collapse appears to have been a mistake.  The “Paper Murderer’s Row” of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia fell apart, all either spending significant amounts of time on the DL or being traded away.  One of the very few bright spots for the Sox has been third baseman Pedro Ciriaco, the 26 year-old rookie from the Dominican Republic who has hit .316 with 54 hits since being called up in July to take over a roster spot for an injured Pedroia.  The future looks somewhat bright for Boston, mainly because it can’t get much darker right now.

The absence of “Joey Bats” has seriously hurt both Toronto’s attendance and record.

5. Toronto Blue Jays- For about ten years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been the most average team around.  Division champs have come and gone, but 75 to 85 wins and a middle-to-back of the pack finish has remained a safe bet in Toronto.  This season will prove the same or slightly worse.  A starting rotation led by Ricky Romero has been inconsistent.  Normally, this problem could at least be helped by the MLB’s most homer-happy lineup.  But despite the breakout performance of DH Edwin Encarnacion, this year the bash-ful display was put on hold by Jose Bautista’s struggle-turned-injury, as he now sits on the DL after undergoing wrist surgery.  The team now finds itself a division-worst 60-75.  At least hockey season’s right around the corner!

Baseball’s Wild Standings: Will They Hold Up?

So were at the All-Star break in baseball. You what that means? It’s time for some classic division races through the dog days of summer. It’s been the year of the underdog in baseball, with the Nationals, Dodgers, and Pirates atop their division, and the Phillies and Red Sox in last place. Here’s a look at all the current division leaders, and predictions on whether they will hold on to win, and if not, who will take the division crown instead.

AL East – Current 1^st place: Yankees, 7 ½ game lead on Orioles

As long as the Yankees don’t choke like in the 2004 ALCS, they should wrap up this division with ease.

Mike Trout and the Angels are on a collision course with the Rangers. They could meet in the ALCS.

AL West – Current 1^st place: Rangers, 4 game lead on Angels

The streaking Angels are coming on strong and look like the second best team in baseball. Too bad the best team in baseball, the Texas Rangers, play in their division. The Rangers have it all: Pitching, hitting, defense, and experience.

AL Central – Current 1^st place: White Sox, 3 game lead on Indians, 3 ½ game lead on Detroit

Weren’t the Tigers a sure fire pick to win the AL Central? Easy money in Vegas, right? In preseason, all 45 ESPN Baseball Analysts picked the Tigers to win the division. Well so much for that. The Tigers though still have two great hitters, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, in the middle of the lineup, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Justin Verlander. Eventually this talented Tigers team will figure it out, and should win a tight division race.

NL Central – Current 1^st place: Pirates, 1 game lead on Reds 

How about another consensus? Before the season, not one ESPN Baseball Analyst out of 45 picked the Pittsburg Pirates to win the division, let alone win one of the two wild cards. Now that’s a surprise party! Heck, I wasn’t even born the last time the Pirates had a winning record, in 1992. The Pirates are 4^th in the National league in pitching, one spot behind the Reds. Both are in the botton half of the NL in hitting. This dead-even race should come down to the final week of September. It’s a toss up, but I’m going with the ‘Cinderella’ Pirates.

Will the Braves or Mets chase down the Nationals in the NL East? Well we already know what Bryce Harper thinks, “That’s a clown question, bro.”

NL East – Current 1^st place: Nationals, 4 game lead on Atlanta, 4 ½ game lead on Mets

The 2012 Nationals first place run is the latest surprise in a baseball season full of them. They’ve done it with a major-league best, team 3.20 ERA. Hitting can come and go, but pitching is usually a constant. Nationals will win the division.

NL West – Current 1^st place: Dodgers, ½ game lead on Giants

In preseason, only 5 out of 45 ESPN Baseball Analysts picked them to make the playoffs, and that includes the division crown and either of the two wild card spots. And those predictions were based on a healthy Matt Kemp, who has been anything but that. What the Dodgers have done so far has been a fairly tale run. They’ve played far above their heads and everyone’s expectations. But even Matt Kemp’s return won’t save the anemic Dodgers offense. Unless the Dodgers add another bat via trade, the Giants should edge them out for the division crown, and if Tim Lincecum ever figures out his issues, they should run away with it.